FDBusiness.com

Sales of ambient, ready-to-drink (RTD), flavoured milk in portion packs were exhibiting the strongest growth of all formats, rising by five times the amount of chilled variants globally, said Jonsson.

Figures showed chilled flavoured milk growth of 1.9% versus growth in ambient of 9.7%, he said.

The gain in share for ambient RTD flavoured milk will be driven almost wholly by Asia and Latin America, with 92% of consumption growth in 2012 coming from China, South and Southeast Asia and Latin America, states Tetra Pak.

In 2009, ambient RTD flavoured milk accounted for 39% of global flavoured milk consumption compared to 32% for chilled flavoured milk.

By 2015, ambient RTD’s share is expected to rise to 49%, with chilled dropping to 27%. At the same time, powdered flavoured milk is set to drop from a 27% share of the market in 2009 to 23% by 2015, according to Tetra Pak.

In the UK, breakfast skipping and indulgence were two major trends offering clues for new product development in the area, states Andrew Smith, Tetra Pak UK marketing manager.

Breakfast replacements, indulgence

“People want to save time and treat themselves,” he explains in Issue 6 of Tetra Pak’s Dairy Index, which focuses on flavoured milk and was published today (June 6). “We see growth opportunities in breakfast replacements and indulgence.”

In addition, price wars in the white milk category meant flavoured milk offered a ray of light for UK processors, says Smith.

“With margins squeezed on white milk due to retailer price war, dairy companies have an opportunity to develop flavoured milk products which add real value.”

The UK is a predominantly chilled market, with sales of flavoured milk set to increase by 1% between 2012 and 2015, compared to a flat market for white milk, Tetra Pak claims.

Flavours

Chocolate, strawberry and banana flavours account for the majority of UK chilled milk sales, with kids under 10 and teenagers the main consumers, Tetra Pak’s report states.

Globally, sales in flavours such as chocolate are slowing down, while novel flavours showing strong growth included citrus fruit, cereal and nuts, according to Mintel’s 2013 Global New Products Database.

Tetra Pak maintains that while 99% of UK consumers regularly consume white milk, only 35% regularly drink flavoured milk, creating a significant potential market for dairy companies to tap into.

Per capita UK consumption amounts to 102 litres a year for white milk and averages just 3.9 litres a year for flavoured milk, according to the data.

Four main growth trends

Jonsson identified four main trends fuelling worldwide growth in the category.

They are: consumers’ desire for nutritious and healthy food, prompting them to turn to nutrient-rich milk products; increased on-the-go consumption driven by urbanisation, curiosity about new food and drink; and desire for indulgence.

Global growth in flavoured milk sales was not just being driven by the usual multinationals, such as Nestle, Danone and Coca-Cola, but was also powered by local market players, said Jonsson.

The biggest barrier to growth was rising raw material, particularly animal feed, costs, driven by pressure on water, land and agricultural resources, he said. There were also concerns about milk availability, according to Tetra Pak.

Sales by country

Brazil was driving the largest growth in sales by country, exhibiting 14.5% from 2009-2012, according to Tetra Pak. The next three countries in the growth rankings, in order, are China, Indonesia and India.

Developing countries currently account for 66% of flavoured milk consumption in 2012 and Tetra Pak forecasts this will rise to 69% by 2015.

In fact, just six Asian countries – China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand – consume 47% of the world’s flavoured milk, Tetra Pak claims.

It predicts 4.1% compound annual growth for flavoured milk volumes from 2012-2015, versus 1.7% growth in white milk.

Third largest growth category

This would make it the third largest growth category in liquid dairy products, behind drinking yoghurt (4.5% growth) and buttermilk (4.3%). It is the second most widely consumed category, according to Tetra Pak.

The company expects flavoured milk volumes to grow by 13% worldwide from 2012-2015, from 17bn litres to 19.2bn litres.

Total liquid dairy product demand is set to grow by 2.4% from 280.3bn litres to 301.3bn litres during this period, it predicts.

The sixth Tetra Pak Dairy Index can be viewed in full at:  www.tetrapak.com/dairyindex